I’m always interested in how future generations will perceive us. So my predictions are based on how we will be viewed in the future. Our descendants will look back on this last decade, and see:

The splintering of mostly shared experiences of reality, into hundreds of millions of individual realities, enabled by confirmation-bias-as-a-service algorithms built into every news feed.

The launch of several new religions built in the hole where trust for centralised sources of information and authority previously existed.

Related to the previous point, the creation of one of the most important inventions in human history, a sovereign, internet-native monetary system, built on the innovation of digital scarcity.

Productivity-SaaS, Marketplaces and Consumer-facing businesses will use fintech and insurtech infrastructure companies to increase their revenue. For example, Marketplaces will use banking-as-a-service utilities such as Swan or Stripe Capital for platforms to launch bank accounts and debt financing for the suppliers on the Marketplaces. Or e-commerce platforms will use insurance-as-a-service utilities like Seyna to sell warranties on their products. In 2021 this monetization strategy will become a trend.

Continuing on Shopify’s 2020 success and the Covid-19 wake up call on the requirement to be digital, brands and independent retailers will accelerate their independence from aggregator marketplaces. They will double down on their DTC marketing and distribution. This will create huge growth opportunities for SaaS and Infrastructure companies enabling this trend.

2021 tech and business debate will be concentrated on GAFA monopolies and their unbundling. I don’t think actual conclusions and/or actions will be taken in 2021.

Payment installments will become an everyday way to pay. The twin forces of increased convenience and tightened household budgets have brought pay-by-installment options mainstream, a trend that will only grow in 2021. Machine learning algorithms have become more adept than ever at assessing risk instantaneously, making it easy to offer “buy now, pay later” options right at checkout. For small and mid-ticket items, shoppers know that, say, instead of paying $100 now, they’ll pay $25 per month for four months. That kind of transparency makes it easier for shoppers on the fence to commit, which appeals to merchants hoping to avoid the dreaded abandoned shopping cart.

In 2021, providers of “buy now, pay later” options themselves will start to diverge, as some focus on higher-end, multi-year agreements, while others seek to offer installment plans for shopping baskets as small as $50. For households increasingly accustomed to paying by the month for everything from streaming services to food delivery premium memberships, installment plans start to look like subscriptions that just happen to have a fixed end date.

I have a gut feeling that 2021 will be anti-climatic as we all return to a sense of normalcy and calm. And we will feel weird about it.
One thing I can accurately predict is being involved in another compelling investment opportunity for your fund!